India Forecasts Below-Normal Southwest Monsoon 2026: IMD Warning

Context: For the first time in 11 years, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an April forecast warning of a “below-normal” southwest monsoon.

Key Highlights of the Forecast Warning

• Between June and September 2026, India is projected to receive only 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA),
• The central reason for this cautious outlook is the anticipated development of El Niño-the periodic warming of the Central Equatorial Pacific waters.
• Currently, the Pacific is transitioning from “weak” La Niña conditions through a neutral phase.
• The negative impacts of El Niño are expected to intensify during the second half of the monsoon season (August–September).

Countervailing Factors

• Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A “positive” IOD (warmer western Indian Ocean near Africa compared to the eastern part near Indonesia) is likely to develop late in the season.
• Reduced Snow Cover: Below-normal Northern Hemisphere snow cover during winter typically strengthens the land-sea thermal gradient, leading to more robust monsoon winds and enhanced rainfall across India.

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