Trump’s Return and the South Asia Outlook

In January 2025, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. His return to office has sparked curiosity and apprehension globally, though his policies in South Asia are expected to provide continuity with a focus on cooperation with India.

Table of Contents

Factors Shaping U.S.-India Relations

Strong Trajectory Since 2000
- The U.S. recognized India as a net-security provider in 2009.

India as a Net Security Provider in Indo-Pacific Region (IOR)

Incidents

Vital water supplies to the Maldives in 2014
Efforts to locate the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.
Humanitarian Assistance to neighbouring countries during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.
In 2024, the Indian Navy successfully intervened in a piracy incident in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and rescued the crew of a hijacked fishing vessel.

Under the Biden administration (2021-24), relations remained strong due to China’s assertiveness.
The U.S. aims to support India’s regional leadership to counter China.

Key Examples of Cooperation

Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) projects in Nepal.
Assisting Sri Lanka during its economic crisis.
Biden’s limited engagement with Pakistan after the Afghanistan withdrawal facilitated mutual strategic vision between the U.S. and India.

Divergences and Challenges

S. scrutiny on democracy and human rights under Biden strained relations, especially regarding:
- Bangladesh (Sheikh Hasina government).
- Myanmar (military junta).
S. sanctions against Indian firms collaborating with Russia and allegations of corruption against the Adani Group impacted Indian projects in Sri Lanka.

Future Outlook

Trump’s foreign policy may prioritize strategic cooperation over human rights concerns.
- This will allow India to take a more proactive role in regional leadership without facing as much pressure from the U.S. on domestic governance issues.