Predictive Modeling of Forest Carbon Sequestration in India (2100): Insights and Projections

Context: A recent longitudinal modelling study indicates that under high-emission scenarios, enhanced precipitation and CO2 fertilisation could nearly double the carbon storage capacity of India’s forests by the end of the century.

Carbon Biomass Projections and Emission Pathways

The study uses advanced modelling to estimate “vegetation carbon biomass” through 2100. While all scenarios remain similar until 2030, they diverge sharply afterwards:

• Low-Emissions Future: Projected 35% increase in biomass.
• Medium-Emissions Pathway: Projected 62%
• High-Emissions (Fossil-Fuel Intensive): A staggering 97%
• Timeline: The steepest acceleration in carbon storage is expected to occur after 2050.

Determinants of Biomass Accumulation

• Increased Precipitation: Higher projected rainfall across India provides more moisture for tree growth. However, there is a lag effect: forests respond to rainfall shifts after approximately two years (low/medium emissions) to four years (high emissions).
• CO2 Fertilization: Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide enhances the rate of photosynthesis and improves the water-use efficiency of plants.
• Woody Biomass Accumulation: Because wood accumulates slowly, the gains in carbon storage represent long-term structural changes in forest density.

Regional Variability

• Arid and Semi-Arid Margins: The highest relative gains (over 60%) are projected for desert and semi-arid zones in Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Western Madhya Pradesh, driven by shifts in moisture availability.
• Biodiversity Hotspots (Himalayas & Western Ghats): These regions show the lowest relative increases. Researchers hypothesize this is due to ecological saturation (carrying capacity) and specific localised climatic stressors that inhibit further rapid expansion.
• Secondary Growth Zones: Significant sequestration potential was also identified in the Trans-Himalayas and the Gangetic forest belt.

Concerns

• Sink-to-Source Reversal: Rapid biomass accumulation in warming climates faces increased vulnerability to wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves, which could trigger the sudden release of stored carbon.
• Exogenous Disruptions: The current models assume intact ecosystems and do not account for anthropogenic pressures such as deforestation, land-use conversion, or pest infestations.
• Ecosystem Resilience: The projected gains may mask underlying physiological stresses, potentially compromising the long-term stability of India’s primary carbon sinks.

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