Editorial of the Day (18th Jan): A Search for Deterrence in the Red Sea

Context: The article raises concerns about the effectiveness of international cooperation in addressing maritime security threats.

Complexities And Concerns

• Advanced Warfare Tactics by Houthis: The Houthis are using sophisticated weaponry like drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) for maritime attacks. This reflects their advanced military capabilities and training.
• Impact on Maritime Trade: The Houthis’ actions are disrupting crucial maritime trade routes in the Red Sea, raising concerns about trade security and the costs associated with rerouting and insurance.
• International Security Cooperation: The lack of effective cooperation and interoperability among international maritime forces is evident, despite previous joint defence exercises. This is a significant concern given the scale of the threat.
• State Support and Weaponry Proliferation: Iran and potentially China are state supporters of the Houthis. The supply of ASBMs raises issues about missile technology proliferation.
• Comparison with Anti-Piracy Efforts: The delayed response to piracy in the past allowed pirates to enhance their capabilities. There’s a fear that a similar pattern could occur with the Houthis, leading to more sophisticated and dangerous attacks.

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Global Response

• S. Policy Shift: The U.S. plans to re-designate the Houthis as a global terrorist group, potentially limiting their financial activities.
• Operation Prosperity Guardian: Led by the U.S., this operation under the Combined Maritime Force (CMF) has seen limited participation from allies.
  • Notably, key NATO allies like France, Italy, and Spain, as well as regional players like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are either operating independently or not participating.
• India’s Role: As a full member of the CMF, India is conducting independent operations, possibly influenced by its relations with Iran.

Suggestive Measures

• Combining Military and Diplomatic Efforts: The article suggests a need for a calibrated approach that combines military actions with efforts to cut off weapon supplies to the Houthis.
• Avoiding Further Escalation: There’s an emphasis on preventing the situation in Yemen from turning into a battleground like Lebanon and avoiding state-on-state conflicts.
• Quick and Achievable Resolution: The article stresses the importance of establishing an accepted end state that can be quickly achieved to prevent further deterioration of the situation.
• Legitimacy Concerns: Actions need to be carefully assessed to avoid inadvertently lending legitimacy to the Houthis as a state actor.

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