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Sudan’s Civil War, Historical Context, Reasons, Current Situation

Context: Sudan’s current conflict is fueled by a persistent identity crisis and the inability of successive governments to manage the nation’s vast diversity of ethnic groups and languages.

Sudan’s Civil War Historical Context

  • Post-Independence Mahdist State: The government formed in 1956 promoted an Arab-Islamic identity based on Mahdism, an Islamic Sufi order from the 1880s.
    • This identity didn’t reflect Sudan’s diversity and tried to enforce Mahdist principles across the nation, leading to widespread resistance.
  • 1989 National Islamic Front Coup: The National Islamic Front, an alliance of army officers and the Muslim Brotherhood, seized power in 1989.
    • Omar al-Bashir, supported by Islamist Hassan al-Turabi, aimed to establish an Islamic state.
    • The government set up a security apparatus to arrest and torture dissidents, enforcing an Islamization agenda with a 1991 penal code and creating the “People’s Police.”
  • Rise of the Janjaweed Militias and RSF: In 2003, al-Bashir enlisted Janjaweed militias to quell an insurgency in Darfur, keeping army elites away from these conflict zones.
    • In 2013, al-Bashir formally rebranded these militias as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and integrated them into national security.
    • By 2017, the RSF was ratified into law and led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), increasing its power and influence.
  • 2019 Overthrow of Al-Bashir: Protests in 2018, driven by economic grievances, led to al-Bashir’s ouster in April 2019 by the military.
    • A transitional military government was established, but protesters continued demanding civilian rule.
    • With African Union mediation, a military-civilian transitional administration was formed in August 2019.
  • Failed Coups and Escalating Tensions: A failed coup in September 2021 preceded another coup in October led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, undermining Sudan’s democratic transition.
    • The months leading up to the April 2023 conflict saw violent civilian repression and rising tensions between the army and RSF.
Demographic Of Sudan
Sudan has 49 million people and is incredibly diverse, with 19 major ethnic groups, 597 sub-groups, and hundreds of languages.

Sudan's Civil War, Historical Context, Reasons, Current Situation_4.1

  • Sudanese Arabs are the dominant group (70% of the population).
  • Political and economic power and resources are concentrated in the country’s centre (for example, Khartoum).

Reasons for Coup in Sudan

  • Disputed Power Dynamics: Tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) escalated over power-sharing arrangements.
    • The October 2021 coup led by army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan disrupted Sudan’s democratic transition, sidelining the civilian government.
  • Marginalisation and Economic Decline: Marginalised communities felt excluded from wealth distribution, and corruption exacerbated poverty and unemployment.
    • Rapid economic decline after the 2019 transitional government took power deepened dissatisfaction.
  • Ideological Differences: Competing visions for Sudan’s future led to political and ideological disputes between the military factions, particularly concerning integration of the RSF.
  • Militia Empowerment: The RSF’s dominance emerged from three conditions: the Darfur conflict, government support allowing them access to resources, and Hemedti’s portrayal of the RSF as a militia representing marginalised rural Arabs.
    • The RSF’s increasing influence expanded through commercial ventures, growing autonomous from the state.
    • This is helping it grow autonomous from government control.

Present-Day Conflict

  • Power Struggle: The SAF and RSF began competing for control of strategic locations and key resources in April 2023.
    • Both factions mobilised their forces, leading to widespread clashes in major cities, border regions, and resource-rich areas.
  • Civilian Impact: The conflict has resulted in significant civilian casualties, mass displacement, and the destruction of infrastructure.
    • Critical shortages of essential goods, like food and medicine, have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis.
  • Economic Consequences: The war has further destabilised the economy, leading to inflation and the collapse of businesses and services.

Way Forward

  • International Mediation: International organisations should mediate peace talks, leveraging their influence to facilitate a ceasefire between the SAF and RSF.
  • Inclusive Governance: Establish a transparent civilian-led government representing diverse ethnic and regional interests.
    • Formulate policies for equitable resource distribution and integrate marginalised communities into governance.
  • Security Sector Reform: Reform the security sector by disbanding autonomous militias and incorporating them into a unified national security structure.
  • Humanitarian Support: Ensure that humanitarian aid reaches all conflict-affected regions and populations.
    • Support reconstruction efforts, particularly for critical infrastructure.
  • Economic Recovery: Create an economic recovery plan with international support, focusing on rebuilding infrastructure, stabilising currency, and reducing inflation.
  • Accountability and Justice: Establish mechanisms for justice and accountability for crimes committed by any armed group, including state actors.
    • Promote national reconciliation and community rebuilding initiatives.

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