Israel-Iran Conflict: Background, Implications and Challenges

In a dramatic turn of events, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a complete and total ceasefire between Israel and Iran, ending a fierce 12-day-long conflict that saw deadly missile exchanges, diplomatic breakdowns, and rising tensions in the Middle East. While Iran initially denied any such agreement, Tehran later confirmed that military operations had ceased, signaling a potential pause in hostilities. The ceasefire came after four waves of Iranian missile attacks on Israeli-held territories and fresh strikes on U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq.

Israel-Iran Ceasefire 2025: Trump Declares End to 12-Day War After Missile Strikes

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a “complete and total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran, marking the end of a 12-day-long conflict. The war saw four waves of Iranian missile strikes on Israeli-held territories, resulting in four deaths. Iran initially denied any ceasefire deal but later confirmed halting operations after 4 AM Tehran time. Trump credited Qatar’s mediation and praised both nations for avoiding further escalation. Despite the ceasefire, Iran launched symbolic strikes on U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq. The ceasefire remains fragile, with tensions still high across the region and no formal peace agreement in place.

Implications of Ongoing Israel-Iran Conflict

• Regional Destabilization: Intensified conflict risks dragging Lebanon, Syria, and Gulf states into war, undermining regional security architecture.
• Nuclear Proliferation Threat: Incomplete destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites may push Tehran to accelerate weaponization clandestinely.
• Civilian Suffering and Displacement: Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in both countries may deepen humanitarian crises and domestic unrest.
• US Geopolitical Dilemma: Pressure mounts on the US to intervene, complicating its strategic balance between Israel and Gulf allies.
• Global Polarization: The conflict may widen rifts between pro-Israel Western powers and nations backing diplomatic restraint like China and Russia.
• Economic Volatility and Oil Shock Risk: Rising conflict threatens global oil routes through the Strait of Hormuz, with ripple effects on energy markets, inflation, and trade.

What are the Challenges in Achieving War Goals in the Israel-Iran Conflict

• Partial Damage to Nuclear Facilities: While the IAEA confirmed major damage at sites like Natanz and Isfahan, Iran’s heavily fortified Fordow facility remains largely unaffected, meaning Israel has not effectively neutralised Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
• Persistent Iranian Counterattacks: Iran continues to launch drones and missiles despite suffering initial blows, defying Israel’s expectations of a swift and decisive outcome.
• Threat of a Prolonged Stalemate: With key Iranian installations still operational and global alarm mounting, Israel now faces the possibility of being drawn into a long, expensive, and inconclusive war.

Way Ahead in Ongoing Israel- Iran Conflict

• Urgent Ceasefire Mediation: Neutral actors like the UN or Gulf states must broker a ceasefire to prevent wider war.
• Reopen Diplomatic Channels: Both sides should be pushed toward backchannel talks, possibly via Oman, UAE, or EU mediators.
• Global Non-Proliferation Push: The IAEA must be empowered to inspect and stabilise Iran’s nuclear programme with international oversight.
• Limit External Involvement: U.S., Russia, and China must avoid direct entanglement and instead focus on de-escalation frameworks.
• Humanitarian Support: Immediate international aid is needed for affected civilians in both Israel and Iran.
• Address Root Tensions: Long-term peace requires addressing Iran-Israel hostilities via a new West Asia security architecture.

Israel-Iran Conflict: Background

• Early Relations and Periphery Doctrine: Iran established diplomatic ties with Israel in 1948, following the first Arab-Israeli war, becoming the second Muslim-majority country after Turkey to do so.
  • Israel’s “periphery doctrine,” under Prime Minister David Ben Gurion, aimed to build alliances with non-Arab countries in the Middle East, including Turkey and pre-revolution Iran.
  • These countries shared a Western orientation and faced regional isolation.
• Pahlavi Dynasty and Bilateral Ties: Under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran had strong S. support similar to Israel.
  • During this period, Iran and Israel maintained robust bilateral relations, including Iran selling oil to Israel despite the Arab economic boycott.
• 1979 Islamic Revolution and Its Aftermath: The overthrow of the Shah in 1979 led to the establishment of a religious state in Iran, drastically changing its view on Israel, which it then viewed as an occupier of Palestinian lands.
  • Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran’s Supreme Leader, labelled Israel as “Little Satan” and the United States as “Great Satan,” indicating adversarial relations due to perceived interference in the region.
• Regional Dynamics and Iran’s Position: Iran’s non-Arab identity placed it at odds with Gamal Abdel Nasser’s pan-Arabism.
  • However, post-Nasser, Iran’s relations with Arab states like Egypt warmed somewhat, highlighted by the 1975 accord with Iraq that reduced hostilities.
• Shadow War Post-1979: Although Israel and Iran have not engaged in direct military conflicts, both have engaged in a shadow war through proxies and strategic attacks.
  • Israel has conducted several attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and was implicated along with the U.S. in creating the Stuxnet virus, which targeted Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility.
  • Iran supports militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, which are anti-Israel and anti-U.S.

Who Are Iran’s Allies?

Syria

• Iran’s most significant ally in the region.
• Supported Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria alongside Russia, helping it endure the country’s long civil war.

Hezbollah

• Iran backs Hezbollah, a powerful armed group in Lebanon.
• Engages in frequent cross-border exchanges with Israel since the conflict with Hamas escalated.
• This resulted in the displacement of civilians from both sides of the border.

Iraqi Shia Militias

• Iran supports several Shia militias in Iraq.
• These militias have launched attacks on US bases across Iraq, Syria, and Jordan.
• Retaliatory strikes by the US occurred after three American soldiers were killed in Jordan.

Yemen’s Houthi Movement

• Iran provides support to the Houthis, who control Yemen’s most populous areas.
• The Houthis have launched missiles and drones at Israel and attacked commercial shipping near their shores, including sinking at least one vessel.
• In response, the US and UK have conducted strikes against Houthi targets.

Palestinian Armed Groups

• Supplies weapons and training to groups like Hamas.
• Iran’s support contributed indirectly to the current war in Gaza, initiated by Hamas’ attacks on Israel on October 7, though Iran denies involvement in the specific October 7 attack itself.

India’s Stance

India maintains diplomatic relationships with both Iran and Israel, carefully balancing its regional interests.

Relations with Israel

• India recognised Israel in 1950, with full diplomatic relations established in 1992.
• Israel provides India with advanced technologies and expertise, particularly in agriculture.
• Israel is a major arms supplier to India, reinforcing strong defence and security ties.
• The Joint Committee on S&T, established under the 1993 S&T Cooperation Agreement, oversees India-Israel cooperation in science and technology.
• Approximately 85,000 Jews of Indian origin live in Israel, all holding Israeli passports.

Relations with Iran

• Diplomatic ties with Iran were also established in 1950.
• Iran has been a key supplier of crude oil to India, although this has been impacted by international sanctions.
• In 2018, India and Iran signed an agreement to avoid double taxation and prevent fiscal evasion regarding income taxes.
• Both countries share concerns over terrorism emanating from Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the situation with the Taliban.
• India is a popular destination for Iranian tourists, with about 40,000 visitors annually.
• India supports the Chabahar port project in Iran, which is vital for India’s access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, circumventing Pakistan.

What Happens Next?

• Iran knows it crossed a line when it became the first nation state in West Asia to launch an attack on Israel since the 1991 Gulf War, which means its objective was to demonstrate its capabilities.
• Iran knows Israel is likely to retaliate, and if Israel directly hits Iran, it cannot just walk away from the conflict.
• This shows that the latest attack is the Iranians’ way of telling Israel that it is ready for an open war.

Israel-Iran Conflict: Recent Attacks

Iran says Israel will get a Tooth-Breaking Attack

Iran has threatened a “tooth-breaking” response to Israel and the U.S. following Israeli strikes on Iranian military sites. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed retaliation against both nations, signalling heightened tensions in the region. In response, the U.S. has deployed B-52 bombers to the Middle East as a warning to Iran against further escalation. This conflict, involving Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah, risks expanding into a broader confrontation impacting regional stability and global security. Meanwhile, Iran has hinted at reconsidering its nuclear policy if it faces existential threats, adding a critical layer of concern for the international community.

Iran Attacks Israel with 180 Missiles: Will Israel Hit Back?

In a shocking escalation of tensions, Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1, 2024. Israel’s Iron Dome successfully intercepted most of the missiles, yet the attack has raised fears of a broader regional conflict and even World War 3. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Iran had made a “huge mistake” and vowed that Israel would respond decisively.

As Israel considers its next move, there are growing concerns that Iran’s oil infrastructure may be targeted. Such a strike would deeply impact global energy markets, possibly leading to severe economic consequences. Iran’s oil exports, a major lifeline for its economy, are now in jeopardy as the conflict intensifies.

Adding to the geopolitical tension, Israel has suddenly banned United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres from entering the country. This move comes amid international calls for restraint and a ceasefire, but Israel remains firm on its defensive stance, refusing to yield to global pressure.

With heightened military readiness, the region stands on the brink of further conflict, and the world anxiously watches to see whether Israel will strike back, possibly igniting a wider confrontation.

Iran Will Attack Israel in 24 Hours

The situation in the Middle East is highly tense, with reports suggesting that Iran might launch an attack on Israel within the next 24 to 48 hours. The U.S. has alerted its G7 allies and is actively working to prevent an escalation. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has reached out to coordinate with allies and apply diplomatic pressure on Iran and Hezbollah.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is considering a preemptive strike if there is substantial evidence of an impending attack from Iran. This comes in the wake of recent high-profile assassinations in Beirut and Tehran, which have intensified the situation.

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