Emerging Strategic Faultlines in India

Emerging Strategic Faultlines in India–US Relations

Recent developments, including U.S.–China rapprochement, differences over Russia, tariffs, and the West Asia crisis, have highlighted emerging faultlines in India–United States relations despite continued strategic cooperation.

Table of Contents

Context

Structural Convergences Between India and U.S.

Shared Concerns on China: Both countries oppose unilateral changes to the Indo-Pacific balance of power. (South China Sea militarisation and Indo-Pacific competition)
Defence & Security Cooperation: Expanding military exercises, logistics agreements and defence technology partnerships. (LEMOA, COMCASA, BECA, INDUS-X)
Critical & Emerging Technologies: Cooperation in semiconductors, AI, quantum technologies, telecom and space sectors. (iCET initiative)
Quad & Indo-Pacific Cooperation: Collaboration through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue on maritime security and resilient supply chains.
Economic & Supply-Chain Partnerships: Both support diversification of manufacturing and critical mineral supply chains away from China. (China+1 strategy)
People-to-People Linkages: Indian diaspora, education and technology-sector ties remain a major stabilizing factor. (Indian-origin leadership in Silicon Valley and U.S. corporations)

Emerging Faultlines in India–US Relations

Transactional & Coercive U.S. Policy: S. increasingly linking trade, tariffs and sanctions with geopolitical alignment. (Tariff pressure over Russian oil imports)
S.–China Tactical Accommodation: Washington shifting from confrontation with China towards managed competition and selective cooperation. (Trump–Xi summit on “strategic stability” and tariff de-escalation)
Strategic Autonomy vs Alliance Expectations: India’s multi-alignment approach conflicts with U.S. expectations of greater strategic alignment. (Differences over Russia, Iran and BRICS)
Pakistan Factor:S. continues to retain strategic engagement with Pakistan for regional and security interests. (Afghanistan legacy, counterterrorism and regional stability concerns)
Divergent Regional Priorities: India’s continental and energy-security concerns differ from U.S. global strategic priorities. (US-Israel attack on Iran affecting the Indian Economy)
Technology & Economic Asymmetry: Concerns regarding dependence on U.S.-controlled technology ecosystems and unequal economic leverage. (Semiconductors, AI, digital infrastructure and critical minerals)

Reasons Behind These Faultlines

Different Strategic Cultures: S. follows alliance-based geopolitics while India prioritizes strategic autonomy and issue-based partnerships.
Changing Global Power Balance: Rise of China and the emergence of multipolarity are reshaping global strategic calculations. (BRICS expansion and weakening unipolar order)
Rise of Economic Nationalism: “America First” policies increased unilateral tariffs, sanctions and protectionist measures. (Trump-era trade and industrial policies)

Concerns for India

Threat to Strategic Autonomy: External pressure may constrain India’s independent foreign-policy choices.
Energy Security Risks: Sanctions and geopolitical conflicts can disrupt affordable crude imports. (Russian crude and Hormuz-related disruptions)
Risk of U.S.–China “G2”: Great-power accommodation may marginalize middle powers like India.
Trade & Manufacturing Vulnerability: Tariff volatility may affect exports and supply-chain integration. (Engineering, pharma and electronics sectors)
Indo-Pacific Strategic Uncertainty: Reduced U.S. focus may strengthen China’s regional assertiveness.
Financial & Supply-Chain Risks: Global sanctions-based order increases vulnerability in shipping, payments and logistics networks.

Way Forward

Strengthen Strategic Autonomy: Continue independent multi-alignment while avoiding excessive dependence on any bloc.
Diversify Energy & Trade Partnerships: Expand ties with UAE, Central Asia, Africa, ASEAN and Latin America.
Accelerate Connectivity Corridors: Strengthen INSTC, IMEC and alternative maritime routes to reduce chokepoint vulnerabilities.
Deepen Indo-Pacific Partnerships: Expand cooperation with Japan, France, EU, ASEAN and Australia.
Build Alternative Financial Mechanisms: Promote local-currency trade and resilient payment systems. (BRICS de-dollarisation discussions)
Pursue Pragmatic U.S. Engagement: Sustain cooperation in defence, technology and business while managing political divergences through institutional dialogue