Turning Point in Eurasia and its Implications for India

Explore the turning point in Eurasia marked by shifting geopolitics, regional alliances, and economic transitions, and analyze its strategic and economic implications for India.

Table of Contents

Context: The 2025 NATO summit in The Hague is portrayed as a critical moment, with NATO’s relevance and cohesion being questioned due to persistent transatlantic tensions, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Trump’s scepticism about the alliance.

About NATO

Headquarters: Brussels, Belgium.
Headquarters of Allied Command Operations: Mons, Belgium
It is an intergovernmental military alliance.
Origin: Founded in the aftermath of World War II to counter the threat posed by the Soviet Union and to promote democracy and stability in Europe.
- The founding treaty of NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty, was signed in Washington, D.C. on April 4, 1949.
Members: The original 12 members of NATO were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
- Currently, it has 32 member countries (Sweden joined in 2024).

NATO Article 10

Why Eurasian Powers Must Find Political Answers to Security Problems

Changing US Commitments: As the US questions its role in defending Europe and the Middle East, traditional reliance on American military support is no longer assured.
Limits of Military Spending: Raising defence budgets (now 5% of their GDP) on defence alone cannot address complex security dilemmas rooted in regional rivalries, historical grievances, and shifting alliances (such as Russian aggression in Ukraine or the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.)
Geopolitical Shifts: The Russian invasion of Ukraine and realignments in the Middle East highlight the need for homegrown political solutions, including dialogue and regional cooperation.
Strategic Autonomy: Germany’s “Zeitenwende” policy is transforming it into a security provider for Europe, rather than relying solely on US protection.
- In Asia, Japan has begun revising its pacifist constitution to enable a more active defence role, and India has invested in its own defence industry and security partnerships beyond the US, such as with France and the Quad (Japan, Australia, US, India).

Key Features of the Zeitenwende Policy

Major Increase in Defence Spending: Germany committed €100 billion (about $110 billion) in special funds to modernize its military (Bundeswehr).
- Pledged to meet and exceed NATO’s target of spending at least 2% of GDP on defence.
Supplying Lethal Weapons: Broke from longstanding policy by supplying weapons directly to Ukraine, reversing decades of reluctance to export arms to conflict zones.
Reducing Dependence on Russia:.Accelerated moves to end German reliance on Russian energy (gas, oil, coal), seeking alternatives and investing in energy security.

Regional Reconciliation: Efforts like the normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran—facilitated by China—demonstrate the power of political negotiation in reducing tensions, even where military confrontation has failed for decades.
- In Central Asia, countries like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are building regional security and economic partnerships to reduce dependence on outside powers.
Birth of a New Order: The rise of China, renewed Russian assertiveness, a more independent Europe, and India’s growing global profile signal a shift to a multipolar world.
- This demands coalitions (like BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and new diplomatic approaches, rather than relying solely on the old US-centric alliances or military pacts.

Implications for India

India’s unique geography and strategic position, straddling Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific, offer both challenges and opportunities.
India is actively:
- Deepening strategic ties with Europe.
- Engaging all major actors in the Middle East.
- Stabilizing ties with China and bolstering relations with ASEAN, Australia, Japan, and South Korea.
- Maintaining robust engagement with the US, regardless of its inward turn.
These moves are aimed at ensuring India’s ability to navigate a world of “diminished certainties” and maximize its strategic autonomy.