Rethinking India’s National Interest in the Neighbourhood

India's foreign policy in its neighbourhood raises critical questions about the effectiveness and implications of its approach, particularly in light of shifting political dynamics in neighbouring countries.

Table of Contents

Current Neighbourhood Landscape

Nepal: The return of K P Oli as Prime Minister has reignited tensions, as he has opted for a visit to China over India, breaking the norm of Nepalese PMs visiting India first.
Bangladesh: The new government under Mohammed Yunus has shown signs of anti-India sentiment, complicating relations further.
Maldives: Mohamed Muizzu’s election campaign centred on removing Indian military presence, indicating a shift in public sentiment against India.
Sri Lanka: President Anura Dissanayake’s coalition does not openly oppose India but has historical grievances regarding Indian intervention.
Bhutan: Although stable, Bhutan’s King has shown a slight tilt towards China, reflecting broader regional trends.

Underlying Factors in Regional Discontent

China’s Counterbalancing Role: Neighbouring countries increasingly use China to counterbalance India’s influence.
India’s Past Policies: Many of the challenges stem from long-standing practices of interference and dominance, not unique to the Modi government.
- Playing the anti-India card remains a rewarding political strategy for many leaders in South Asia.
India’s Foreign Policy Approach
- Lack of Clear Priorities: The “Neighbourhood First” policy lacks clarity on whether it prioritises neighbourly concerns or India’s global aspirations.
- Overreach Without Gains: India’s interventions have not delivered significant strategic benefits, eroding moral authority and trust.

Indian Policy in Nepal

Nepal’s Democratic Transition: Complaints persist regarding India’s perceived interference during Nepal’s transition to democracy, including accusations related to the blockade in 2015, which many Nepalis view as punitive.
Perception of Interference: Persistent allegations of Indian meddling in Nepalese domestic politics, including favouritism toward certain leaders and parties.
- Indian agencies like RAW are frequently accused of conspiracy, fostering mistrust.
Public Perception and Mistrust: Widespread perceptions of Indian intelligence operations and interference have led to mistrust among neighbouring countries.
This sentiment undermines India’s moral standing and effectiveness in fostering positive relations.

Recommendations for Future Policy

“Neighbourliness First” approach:
- Respecting sovereignty and non-interference.
- Peaceful resolution of disputes without imposing conditions or expectations of reciprocity.
- Acknowledging the unique needs and concerns of each neighbour.
Decency Over Dominance:
- Emphasise respect, peaceful coexistence, and regional stability.
- Avoid policies of browbeating and imposing India’s will on its neighbours