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IPCC Assessment Reports and New Study Findings

Context

  • A recent study scrutinised over 500 emissions scenarios from the IPCC’s reports, uncovering persistent disparities.
  • Despite global efforts, developed nations are projected to maintain higher income, energy use, and emissions rates compared to their developing counterparts until 2050.

About IPCC Assessment Reports

  • What are they?
    • Comprehensive reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
    • Assess climate-related scientific literature.
    • Capture the state of knowledge on climate change (science, technology, socio-economics).
  • Structure of Reports:
    • Three Working Group Reports:
      • Physical Science – climate system and climate change.
      • Climate Adaptation – impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation strategies.
      • Mitigation Action – reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting warming.
    • Synthesis Report – consolidates findings from the Working Groups.
    • Thematic Special Reports – address specific climate change aspects.
  • Current Stage: IPCC is currently in its Seventh Assessment Cycle (AR7).

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How IPCC Assesses Future Scenarios?

  • Method: Uses “modelled pathways” to estimate actions needed to limit global warming.
  • Tools: Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that combine human and earth systems.
    • Consider various aspects:
      • Macroeconomic models – project future economic growth (GDP).
      • Energy models – project future energy consumption.
      • Vegetation models – examine land-use changes.
      • Earth-system models – understand how climate evolves based on physics.
  • Goal: Provide policy-relevant guidelines on climate action.

Shortcomings of Current Models

  • Focus on Least:
    • Cost Solutions: Prioritizes cost-effectiveness, not equity. (e.g., setting up solar plants might be cheaper in India than the US).
  • Ignores Equity Considerations:
    • Doesn’t account for the historical responsibility of developed countries for high emissions.
    • Doesn’t consider the future energy needs of developing countries for development.

New Study Findings on IPCC Scenarios (AR6)

  • Analysis: 556 future emissions scenarios from IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
  • Findings:
    • Disparity between developed and developing countries persists: Income, energy use, and emissions disparities between developed and developing countries persist until 2050.
      • Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and most of Asia (60% of the global population) will have lower GDP per capita than the global average even in 2050.
      • Similar inequities exist in the consumption of goods and services, energy, and fossil fuels between developed and developing countries.
    • Unequal burden of mitigation: Developing countries are projected to take on a higher burden of:
      • Land-based carbon sequestration (e.g., forests).
      • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies.
    • Disregards historical responsibility: Developed countries have emitted more historically
    • Ignores development needs of the Global South: Poorer countries may need more energy for development

Why Equity Matters in Climate Action?

  • UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC):
    • Principle of Equity: tackling climate change requires a fair approach.
    • Principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities: richer countries have a greater responsibility due to historical emissions. (Article 3 of UNFCCC)
  • Current Mitigation Pathways:
    • Modelled using IAMs, often disregard equity principles.
    • Focus on global technical and economic feasibility, not fairness.
    • Developed countries need to take the lead in reducing emissions and make resources available to developing countries.

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