IPCC Assessment Reports and New Study Findings

Context

• A recent study scrutinised over 500 emissions scenarios from the IPCC’s reports, uncovering persistent disparities.
• Despite global efforts, developed nations are projected to maintain higher income, energy use, and emissions rates compared to their developing counterparts until 2050.

About IPCC Assessment Reports

• What are they?
  • Comprehensive reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
  • Assess climate-related scientific literature.
  • Capture the state of knowledge on climate change (science, technology, socio-economics).
• Structure of Reports:
  • Three Working Group Reports:
    • Physical Science – climate system and climate change.
    • Climate Adaptation – impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation strategies.
    • Mitigation Action – reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting warming.
  • Synthesis Report – consolidates findings from the Working Groups.
  • Thematic Special Reports – address specific climate change aspects.
• Current Stage: IPCC is currently in its Seventh Assessment Cycle (AR7).

We’re now on WhatsApp. Click to Join

How IPCC Assesses Future Scenarios?

• Method: Uses “modelled pathways” to estimate actions needed to limit global warming.
• Tools: Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that combine human and earth systems.
  • Consider various aspects:
    • Macroeconomic models – project future economic growth (GDP).
    • Energy models – project future energy consumption.
    • Vegetation models – examine land-use changes.
    • Earth-system models – understand how climate evolves based on physics.
• Goal: Provide policy-relevant guidelines on climate action.

Shortcomings of Current Models

• Focus on Least:
  • Cost Solutions: Prioritizes cost-effectiveness, not equity. (e.g., setting up solar plants might be cheaper in India than the US).
• Ignores Equity Considerations:
  • Doesn’t account for the historical responsibility of developed countries for high emissions.
  • Doesn’t consider the future energy needs of developing countries for development.

New Study Findings on IPCC Scenarios (AR6)

• Analysis: 556 future emissions scenarios from IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
• Findings:
  • Disparity between developed and developing countries persists: Income, energy use, and emissions disparities between developed and developing countries persist until 2050.
    • Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and most of Asia (60% of the global population) will have lower GDP per capita than the global average even in 2050.
    • Similar inequities exist in the consumption of goods and services, energy, and fossil fuels between developed and developing countries.
  • Unequal burden of mitigation: Developing countries are projected to take on a higher burden of:
    • Land-based carbon sequestration (e.g., forests).
    • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies.
  • Disregards historical responsibility: Developed countries have emitted more historically
  • Ignores development needs of the Global South: Poorer countries may need more energy for development

Why Equity Matters in Climate Action?

• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC):
  • Principle of Equity: tackling climate change requires a fair approach.
  • Principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities: richer countries have a greater responsibility due to historical emissions. (Article 3 of UNFCCC)
• Current Mitigation Pathways:
  • Modelled using IAMs, often disregard equity principles.
  • Focus on global technical and economic feasibility, not fairness.
  • Developed countries need to take the lead in reducing emissions and make resources available to developing countries.

Sharing is caring!