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India’s Total Fertility Rate, Reasons, Future Strategies

Context:

  • According to a study published in The Lancet, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) worldwide has significantly decreased from about five children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 children in 2021.
  • By 2050, 76% (155 out of 204 countries) will have a TFR below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. By 2100, this is expected to rise to 97% (198 countries).

India’s Fertility Rate: A Closer Look

  • TFR Evolution: India’s TFR has sharply fallen from 6.18 in 1950 to 4.60 in 1980, and further to 91 in 2021.
  • Future Projection: By 2050, one in five Indians will be a senior citizen, indicating a shift towards an ageing population similar to China’s current demographic challenges.

Reasons for Declining Fertility in India

  • Family Welfare Programme: Post-independence efforts to control population growth through health and welfare programs encouraged families to have no more than two children.
  • Economic Shifts: The reversal of intergenerational wealth flow, where parents see reduced benefits from offspring, influencing decisions against having additional children.
  • Female Literacy and Workforce Participation: Increased education and career opportunities for women have led to a preference for smaller families or decisions against having children.

Long-term Consequences

  • Increase in Elderly Population: The proportion of senior citizens in India is expected to exceed 20% by 2050, stressing the need for adequate senior care and support systems.
  • Labour Shortages: Anticipated reductions in the working-age population may lead to labour force challenges.
  • Gender Imbalance: Persisting gender preferences could further exacerbate social imbalances.

Mitigation and Future Strategies

  • Scandinavian Model: Emphasis on supporting families through affordable childcare, healthcare investments, and initiatives for gender equity.
  • Economic and Social Policies: The importance of policies that stimulate economic growth, job creation, social security, and pension reforms to adapt to demographic shifts.

Global Implications

  • Population Management: The decline in fertility rates suggests that countries may need to consider ethical and effective immigration policies to maintain population levels.

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Important Terms

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

  • This is a demographic measure that indicates the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime (typically considering ages 15-49).
  • It’s calculated by adding up the fertility rates for each age group within the childbearing years, typically at 5-year intervals.

Replacement Level

  • This refers to the fertility rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without growing or shrinking.
  • A TFR of 2.1 is generally considered the replacement level. If the TFR falls below 2.1 in a given area, the population will eventually start to decline.

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About the Author

I, Sakshi Gupta, am a content writer to empower students aiming for UPSC, PSC, and other competitive exams. My objective is to provide clear, concise, and informative content that caters to your exam preparation needs. I strive to make my content not only informative but also engaging, keeping you motivated throughout your journey!

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