India's Total Fertility Rate, Reasons, Future Strategies

India’s Total Fertility Rate, Reasons, Future Strategies

India's total fertility rate (TFR) has been declining significantly in recent decades. This trend has economic and social implications. Get here Reasons for Declining Fertility in India.

Table of Contents

Context:

According to a study published in The Lancet, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) worldwide has significantly decreased from about five children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 children in 2021.
By 2050, 76% (155 out of 204 countries) will have a TFR below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. By 2100, this is expected to rise to 97% (198 countries).

India’s Fertility Rate: A Closer Look

TFR Evolution: India’s TFR has sharply fallen from 6.18 in 1950 to 4.60 in 1980, and further to 91 in 2021.
Future Projection: By 2050, one in five Indians will be a senior citizen, indicating a shift towards an ageing population similar to China’s current demographic challenges.

Reasons for Declining Fertility in India

Family Welfare Programme: Post-independence efforts to control population growth through health and welfare programs encouraged families to have no more than two children.
Economic Shifts: The reversal of intergenerational wealth flow, where parents see reduced benefits from offspring, influencing decisions against having additional children.
Female Literacy and Workforce Participation: Increased education and career opportunities for women have led to a preference for smaller families or decisions against having children.

Long-term Consequences

Increase in Elderly Population: The proportion of senior citizens in India is expected to exceed 20% by 2050, stressing the need for adequate senior care and support systems.
Labour Shortages: Anticipated reductions in the working-age population may lead to labour force challenges.
Gender Imbalance: Persisting gender preferences could further exacerbate social imbalances.

Mitigation and Future Strategies

Scandinavian Model: Emphasis on supporting families through affordable childcare, healthcare investments, and initiatives for gender equity.
Economic and Social Policies: The importance of policies that stimulate economic growth, job creation, social security, and pension reforms to adapt to demographic shifts.

Global Implications

Population Management: The decline in fertility rates suggests that countries may need to consider ethical and effective immigration policies to maintain population levels.

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Important Terms

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

This is a demographic measure that indicates the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime (typically considering ages 15-49).
It’s calculated by adding up the fertility rates for each age group within the childbearing years, typically at 5-year intervals.

Replacement Level

This refers to the fertility rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without growing or shrinking.
A TFR of 2.1 is generally considered the replacement level. If the TFR falls below 2.1 in a given area, the population will eventually start to decline.