China-Pakistan Collusion: Implication for India

Context: China and Pakistan’s deepening strategic ties pose complex security challenges for India.

China-Pakistan Collusion: Deepening China & Pakistan Ties

• Defence and Military Cooperation: China is Pakistan’s largest arms supplier.
  • Examples: JF-17 fighter jets (co-produced), HQ-9/P air defence system, VT-4 tanks, SH-15 howitzers.
  • Ongoing talks for the supply of J-10C and potentially J-35 stealth fighters.
• Joint Military Exercises: Regular drills like “Warrior” and “Sea Guardians” (Navy) enhance interoperability.
• Technology Transfers: Support in drone warfare, satellite navigation via BeiDou, missile guidance systems, and radar technologies.
  • Eg., Reports of joint development of UAVs and naval platforms.
• Nuclear and Missile Collaboration: China’s role was key in helping Pakistan develop its nuclear weapons program during the 1980s and 1990s.
  • Assistance in missile technologies like the Shaheen and Ghauri series.
  • China’s nuclear power plants (e.g., Chashma units, Karachi Nuclear Power Plant) have helped Pakistan’s civilian energy program.
• Strategic and Diplomatic Shielding: China has repeatedly used its veto or delay power in the UNSC to shield Pakistan-based terrorists (e.g., Masood Azhar).
  • Cooperation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), BRI, and G77.
  • Joint opposition to India’s inclusion in groups like the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group).
• Economic Cooperation: Flagship project under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
  • ~$62 billion in Chinese investments in Roads, railways, energy, fibre optic connectivity, and the Gwadar Port.
  • Give China access to the Arabian Sea, bypassing the Strait of Malacca.
  • Built and operated by China, gives Beijing a logistical hub near the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Potential dual-use (civilian and military) infrastructure.
• Cyber and Digital Infrastructure: Chinese tech firms like Huawei and ZTE support Pakistan’s digital infrastructure, telecom, and surveillance systems.
• Intelligence and Security Cooperation: Reports of Chinese personnel monitoring weapons use during Pakistani military operations.
  • Intelligence sharing on Indian deployments and activities, especially around PoK and Ladakh.
• People-to-People and Institutional Linkages: Scholarships and cultural exchanges under Confucius Institutes and Belt and Road scholarships.
  • Military officers from Pakistan trained in PLA academies.

Challenges for India

• Two-Front Military Pressure: Risk of simultaneous pressure from Western (Pakistan) and Northern/Eastern (China) fronts.
  • China’s strategic support enables Pakistan to maintain a credible military threat despite economic distress.
• Strategic Encirclement: Projects like CPEC, port development in Gwadar and Djibouti, and ties with Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives increase China’s regional influence.
• Diplomatic Isolation: Sino-Pak coordination complicates India’s efforts at international forums, especially on terrorism, Kashmir, and NSG membership.
• Proxy and Grey-Zone Threats: Use of non-state actors, cyber operations, and coordinated psychological warfare make attribution and retaliation difficult.
• Economic and Technological Competition: China’s technological backing strengthens Pakistan’s indigenous capabilities in drones, cyber tech, and surveillance.

How India Can Tackle the China–Pakistan Nexus

• Military Preparedness & Modernisation:
  • Integrated Theatre Commands (ITCs): For seamless coordination between services across multiple fronts.
  • Surveillance and ISR: Expand indigenous satellite networks, drones, and radar systems.
  • Border Infrastructure: Accelerate road and logistics development on both eastern and western borders.
• Diplomatic and Strategic Outreach:
  • Engage the Global South and major powers (U.S., France, Japan) for support in international forums.
  • Backchannel Diplomacy with China: Keep de-escalation channels open to avoid miscalculations.
  • Strengthen ties with Central Asia, ASEAN, and Africa to balance Chinese influence.
• Technology and Cyber Resilience: Indigenise defence production via DRDO-DPSU-private sector collaboration.
  • Expand capabilities in cyber warfare, AI-enabled command and control, and EW systems.
• Internal Security and Counter-Proxy Capabilities: Sharpen intelligence capabilities to counter cross-border terror and misinformation campaigns.
  • Expand cooperation with Israel, the U.S., and the EU on counter-terrorism and cyber defence.
• Economic Strategy: Reduce dependency on Chinese supply chains through PLI schemes and critical mineral alliances.
  • Offer alternatives to Chinese-led infrastructure in South Asia via the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) and the Act East Policy.

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