Future of UN and Multilateralism: The U.S. Retreat, China’s Rise, and India’s Opportunity

Future of UN and Multilateralism: As the 80th UN General Assembly (2025) meets, U.S. President Donald Trump’s fresh push against multilateral institutions and China’s increasing influence at the UN highlight big shifts in global governance.

Table of Contents

Context

As the 80th UN General Assembly (2025) meets, U.S. President Donald Trump’s fresh push against multilateral institutions and China’s increasing influence at the UN highlight big shifts in global governance. For India, these changes bring both challenges and opportunities in shaping the future of multilateralism.

Multilateralism Under Test

Post-1945 order under strain: The UN, WTO, and Bretton Woods institutions represented post-WWII consensus. Today, populist nationalism, great power rivalries, and financial crises threaten their legitimacy.
UN Security Council (UNSC) gridlock: The UNSC is paralysed by U.S.-China and US -Russia veto wars, even on humanitarian matters.
Financial crunch in UN agencies: Sharp decline in voluntary contributions, worsened by U.S. cuts, has led to stalled peacekeeping and humanitarian operations.
Stalled reforms: Key reforms like UNSC expansion remain blocked due to geopolitical divisions.
Erosion of trust: Global South perceives UN bodies as unrepresentative and dominated by major powers.

How the U.S. is Hurting Multilateralism

Retreat to sovereignty-first policy: Trump has openly rejected “supra-nationalism,” framing sovereignty as supreme in foreign policy.
Institutional exits: U.S. has withdrawn from WHO, UNESCO, Human Rights Council, Paris Climate Agreement, and halted contributions to UNRWA (Palestinian refugees).
Funding cuts: Over 80% reduction in U.S. contributions to peacekeeping, health, and climate operations.
Project 2025 playbook: A conservative agenda to weaponise funding, oppose UN work on gender and climate, and even threaten U.S. exit from the UN.
Undermining global consensus: By bypassing multilateral mechanisms, Washington promotes unilateral deals or coalitions of the willing, weakening legitimacy of global forums.

China Filling the Vacuum

Strategic positioning in UN agencies: China actively places nationals in technical and administrative posts that shape global standards and decisions.
Agenda setting: Promotes narratives like “Global Development Initiative,” “Global Security Initiative,” and “Global Civilisation Initiative”, aligning UN work with its rise.
Belt and Road alignment: Uses the UN to legitimise BRI-linked projects, particularly in Global South.
Financial clout: China contributes ~20% of UN regular budget ($680 million), far exceeding India’s contribution.
Indispensable actor: While not yet replacing U.S. dominance, Beijing’s activism has tilted debates in forums like Human Rights Council and FAO.

Challenges for India

Strategic and Security Challenges

West Asia instability: U.S. retreat raises India’s burden to protect its diaspora and oil supplies through chokepoints like Hormuz.
Chinese influence in UN: Beijing’s growing clout may constrain India on security, cyber, and Indo-Pacific issues.
UNSC reform blocked: U.S.-China rivalry stalls expansion, hurting India’s bid for permanent membership.

Economic Challenges

WTO weakening: With U.S. disengagement and China’s mercantilist influence, global trade rules risk being reshaped in ways that marginalise Indian exporters and hurt developing economies.
Climate finance gaps: U.S. withdrawal from climate commitments (e.g., Loss and Damage Fund) leaves India and other developing countries facing greater adaptation costs with little external support.
Aid and development funding shortfall: Reduced U.S. contributions to UN development programmes affect initiatives that India partners with in health, education, and sustainable development.

Diplomatic and Multilateral Challenges

Erosion of global consensus: Gridlocked multilateralism makes it harder for India to mobilise Global South demands on issues like vaccine equity, food security, or digital governance.
Pressure to pick sides: India faces balancing dilemmas between the U.S. and China – both of whom expect alignment in multilateral platforms.
Reduced legitimacy of multilateral platforms: If the UN and WTO weaken, India loses forums where middle powers can constrain great powers and amplify their voice.

Opportunities for India

Middle power diplomacy: With U.S. retreat and Chinese dominance contested, India can build coalitions of middle powers (EU, Japan, ASEAN, Africa).
Champion of Global South: India can leverage its G-20 presidency legacy, SCO, BRICS, and IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor) to articulate South’s priorities.
Focus on niche issues: Global governance of AI, climate-health nexus, supply chain resilience are areas where India can lead.
Financial responsibility: India must raise UN contributions (currently <1% of budget, $38 million) to match its status as world’s 4th largest economy.
Reform advocacy: UNSC expansion remains blocked, but India should frame reforms in broader governance terms – budget rationalisation, accountability, decentralisation.

North-South Divide: Global South is losing patience with Northern hypocrisy on climate finance and technology transfer. India can bridge divides.
India’s credibility: As a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific and champion of climate action (ISA, LiFE movement), India’s credibility is growing.