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Divergent Demographic Paths of India and China

The Different Demographic Paths of India and China

  • The critical juncture: The years 2022 and 2023 will mark two landmark demographic years for China and India.
    • In 2022, for the first time, China registered an absolute decline in its population.
    • And in 2023, India’s population will surpass China’s 1,425.67 million, according to United Nations.
  • Two primary drivers behind these demographic shifts:
Different Demographic Paths of India and China
Different Demographic Paths of India and China
Implications for China and India
Implications for China and India

Implications for China and India

  • Crisis for China – Declining working age population:
    • China’s working-age population is projected to fall below 50% by 2045. Moreover, the average (median) age of the population, which was 28.9 years in 2000 and 37.4 years in 2020, is expected to soar to 50.7 years by 2050.
    • In short, China faces the prospect of a dwindling labour force having to support a rapidly aging population.
  • Opportunity for India – Demographic Dividend:
    • For India, the share of working age population in the overall population crossed 50% only in 2007, and will peak at 57% towards the mid-2030s.
    • The median age of India’s population also will not go up much — from 27.3 years in 2020 to 38.1 in 2050 — adding up to a less depressing prospect than China’s.
    • Overall then, India has a window of opportunity well into the 2040s for reaping its “demographic dividend”, like China did from the late 1980s until up to 2015.

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FAQs

According to United Nations, India’s population will surpass China’s 1,425.67 million in which year?

2023, India’s population will surpass China’s 1,425.67 million, according to United Nations.

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