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Context: India’s 10-year benchmark government bond yield has risen by about 26 basis points in the past month. This happened despite the RBI cutting the repo rate by 100 basis points (1%) over the past seven months.
What is Bond Yield?
- A bond yield is the return an investor gets on a government or corporate bond.
- Formula:
- Bond Yield = (Coupon Payment / Current Price of Bond) ×100
- When bond prices, yields (since the denominator increases).
- When bond prices, yields (since investors demand a higher return for perceived risks).
Relation between Bond Yield and Rate Cuts
- Normally, when the RBI cuts the repo rate:
- Borrowing becomes cheaper.
- Demand for bonds rises (since they give relatively higher fixed returns).
- This pushes bond prices up and yields down.
- So, rate cuts usually lead to falling bond yields.
Why Increased Bond Yield Despite Rate Cuts?
RBI’s Hawkish Stance
“Hawkish” means RBI is more concerned about controlling inflation than supporting growth.
- RBI has signalled that it may not cut rates further because risks like global trade tensions, oil price shocks, and domestic fiscal issues remain.
- This made investors worried that liquidity support would be limited in the future, so they started selling bonds.
- Selling bonds lowers bond prices → yields rise
Higher Government Borrowing Concerns
The Government plans to reform GST and spend more.
- This raises the fear of fiscal deficit slipping (i.e., government spending more than its income).
- To cover this, the government will need to borrow more by issuing bonds.
- More supply of bonds in the market = lower bond prices.
- Lower bond prices → higher yields.