Russian Oil Imports: Why a Sharp Cut Is Unlikely for India

Explore why India is expected to continue importing Russian oil despite global pressure. Understand economic, geopolitical, and energy security factors shaping India’s strategy.

Table of Contents

Context

While imports from Russia have declined in recent months, a complete halt is neither feasible nor desirable in the short to medium term.

Decline in Russian Oil Imports: Recent Trends

● Peak to dip: Imports fell from about 2.09 million bpd (June 2025) to ~1.16 million bpd (January 2026).

● Cause: Tighter U.S. sanctions on Russian producers/exporters (e.g., Rosneft, Lukoil).

● Still significant: Russia accounted for ~22% of India’s crude basket in January 2026—down from 35–40%+ earlier.

● Near-term lock-in: Cargoes are contracted for 8–10 weeks, limiting immediate cuts.

Why India Is Unlikely to Stop Russian Oil Imports

Contractual Constraints: Long-term and spot contracts already booked through March–April 2026. Sudden cancellations would raise costs and supply risks for refiners.
Nayara Energy Case: Nayara Energy (400,000 bpd capacity) relies almost entirely on Russian crude due to EU/US sanctions restricting alternative sourcing. Forcing a stop would effectively shut the refinery, hurting domestic supply.
Refinery Compatibility: Indian refineries are optimised for medium-sour crudes (Russia/West Asia). S. crude is lighter and sweeter; workable but less ideal for displacement at scale.
Cost & Logistics: Freight from the U.S. costs more than double compared to West Asia/Russia. Russian barrels have been economically critical for complex refineries.
Strategic Autonomy: India resists external diktats on trade choices. Maintaining diversified sources preserves policy independence and bargaining power.

Can the Venezuela Replace Russian Oil?

Technical Compatibility Advantage: Crude from Venezuela is heavy and sour, making it closer to Russian grades and technically suitable for Indian refineries.
Severe Production Constraints: Venezuela’s oil output is limited to ~1 million bpd, restricting its ability to supply large additional volumes.
High Competing Demand: The U.S. itself is a major buyer of Venezuelan crude, reducing export availability for India.
Sanctions and Infrastructure Issues: Years of sanctions have damaged Venezuela’s oil infrastructure; scaling production needs massive investment and time.
Long-Term, Not Immediate Solution: Even with sanctions easing, Venezuela cannot replace Russian oil in the short to medium term.

Strategic Options for India

Diversification at the margin: Incremental increases from the U.S., West Asia, Africa.
Flexible crude blending: Optimise refinery runs to accommodate varied grades.
Energy diplomacy: Balance ties with Russia and the U.S. without alignment traps.
Domestic resilience: Build strategic reserves; accelerate renewables and biofuels.
Market-based adjustments: Let price and availability—not politics alone—guide sourcing.