India’s Progress on its Climate Targets

Context

• India is broadly progressing toward its Paris climate commitments, with emissions intensity reduction and renewable energy capacity targets largely on course.
• However, rising absolute emissions and continued reliance on coal remain significant challenges that will shape India’s climate trajectory in the next decade.

India’s Key Climate Targets

• Emissions intensity reduction: Cut emissions intensity of GDP by 33–35% from 2005 levels by 2030, later enhanced to 45% by 2030 in the updated 2022 NDC.
• Non-fossil power capacity: Ensure 40% of installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030, subsequently revised to 50%.
• Renewable energy expansion: Initial target of 175 GW by 2022, later scaled up to 500 GW by 2030.
• Forest carbon sink creation: Develop an additional 5–3 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent carbon sink through forests and tree cover by 2030. Long-term climate goal: Achieve net-zero emissions by 2070.

Current Status of Targets

• Emissions intensity: Emissions intensity has fallen by around 36% by 2020, meeting the original Paris commitment well ahead of schedule.
  • However, absolute greenhouse gas emissions remain high (about 3 GtCO₂e), indicating only partial decoupling of economic growth from emissions.
• Power sector transition: Non-fossil installed capacity exceeded 50% by mid-2025, largely due to solar and wind additions.
  • Despite this, renewables account for only about 22% of actual electricity generation, as coal continues to supply over 70% of baseload power.
• Renewable energy capacity growth: Solar capacity expanded sharply from about 3 GW in 2014 to over 110 GW by 2025, while wind growth has been relatively modest.
  • The 175 GW (2022) target was missed, though the 500 GW (2030) target remains technically achievable.
• Forest and carbon sink target: Government estimates suggest India is close to achieving the forest sink goal.
  • However, heavy reliance on plantations and broad forest-cover definitions raises concerns about ecological quality, biodiversity, and long-term carbon permanence.

Roadblocks to Achieving Climate Targets

• Rising absolute emissions: Despite a 33% reduction in emissions intensity by 2023, India’s total emissions increased to around 35 Gt CO₂e in 2024, largely due to growing electricity demand.
  • High GDP growth allows intensity to decline even as overall emissions rise, putting pressure on the national carbon budget.
• Coal-based baseload lock-in: Coal remains central to energy security, with about 219 GW of installed capacity supplying over 65% of electricity generation.
  • Proposed addition of nearly 80 GW of coal capacity by 2031–32 risks long-term carbon lock-in and slows structural decarbonisation.
• Energy storage and grid bottlenecks: Rapid renewable expansion is constrained by inadequate storage and transmission capacity.
  • Although solar capacity has crossed 110 GW, operational battery energy storage is below 0.3 GWh, far short of multi-gigawatt requirements.
  • A 42% shortfall in transmission commissioning (FY25) has limited renewable power evacuation.
• Implementation and forest governance gaps: Utilisation of CAMPA funds remains weak, with states spending only a small share of released allocations.
  • Afforestation efforts are largely plantation-driven, overlooking natural regeneration and resulting in ecologically fragile carbon sinks, vulnerable to droughts and forest fires.

Way Ahead

• Scale up energy storage and modernise the grid: Fast-track the National Electricity Transmission Plan to support integration of 500 GW of non-fossil capacity.
  • Achieve 74 GW of battery energy storage and 50 GW of pumped hydro storage by 2032, supported by viability gap funding, to convert installed capacity into reliable generation.
• Establish a transparent coal transition pathway: Accelerate retirement of old and inefficient thermal plants, building on the 6 GW already decommissioned by 2025.
  • Repurpose abandoned coal mines for solar projects and pumped storage, ensuring a just transition for coal-dependent regions.
• Drive industrial decarbonisation through green hydrogen: Implement the National Green Hydrogen Mission (₹19,744 crore) to reduce emissions in steel, fertilisers, and refining.
  • The 5 MMT annual hydrogen target by 2030, supported by SIGHT incentives, can significantly cut emissions from hard-to-abate sectors.
• Reform forest and carbon governance: Operationalise the Indian Carbon Market (from 2025) with binding sector-wise targets to enable cost-effective mitigation.
• Redirect CAMPA funding from monoculture plantations toward assisted natural regeneration and biodiversity-rich forests for durable and resilient carbon sinks.

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