- Overall global growth for 2020 is forecast to reach 2.5%, up from 2.4% estimated in 2019.
- The World Bank has global growth inching up in 2021 to 2.6% and in 2022 to 2.7%.
ADVANCED & EMERGING ECONOMIES
- Growth among advanced economies as a group is anticipated to slip to 1.4% in 2020.
- Growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to accelerate this year to 4.1%.
- The latest projections involve a significant downgrade from the June 2019 forecasts,
- Which expected the Indian economy to grow at 7.5% or more in the next three years.
- Lingering weakness in credit from non-banking financial companies (NBFCs).
- The main cause for the downgrade.
GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS
- The World Bank has warned of the risk of a fresh global debt crisis.
- In 2018, global debt climbed to a record high of about 230% of GDP.
- While total debt from emerging and developing economies reached an all-time high of almost 170% of GDP.
- There have been 4 waves of debt accumulation over the last 50 years.
- The first 3 waves of global debt accumulation were identified as running from 1970-1989, 1990-2001 and 2002-2009.
- The current wave — which started in 2010 — is thought to be “the largest, fastest and most broad-based increase.”
SLOWING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
- Productivity growth, a primary source of income growth and driver of poverty reduction,
- Has slowed more broadly and steeply since the global financial crisis.