- According to UN World Population prospect report 2022, India will soon become the most populated country in the world. In light of the above observation, discuss the population dynamics of the world with special focus on India. Also highlight the core policy issues that will confront the policymakers in coming decades.
- According to the World Population Prospects 2022, the global population is estimated to reach eight billion on November 15, 2022.
- The global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under one per cent in 2020.
About the report
- The Population Division of the UN has been publishing the World Population Prospects in a biennial cycle since 1951.
- Each revision of the WPP provides a historical time series of population indicators starting in 1950.
- It does so by taking into account newly released national data to revise estimates of past trends in fertility, mortality or international migration.
- The world’s population continues to grow, but the pace of growth is slowing down.
- The global population is expected to grow to around 5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100. In 2020, the global growth rate fell under 1% per year for the first time since 1950.
- The 46 least developed countries (LDCs) are among the world’s fastest-growing mostly from Africa.
- More than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
- For high-income countries between 2000 and 2020, the contribution of international migration to population growth (net inflow of 80.5 million) exceeded the balance of births over deaths (66.2 million).
- Over the next few decades, migration will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries.
- A sustained drop in fertility has led to an increased concentration of the population at working ages (between 25 and 64 years), creating an opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita.
- This shift in the age distribution provides a time-bound opportunity for accelerated economic growth known as the “demographic dividend”.
- The population of older persons is increasing both in numbers and as a share of the total: The share of the global population aged 65 years or above is projected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050.
- Lets Talk about India
- India is likely to surpass its neighbour, China, as the world’s most populous country in the coming year (2023).
- According to the report, India’s population stands at 1.412 billion in 2022, compared to China’s 1.426 billion.
Can we rely on UN PP report?
- Although, the census 2021 is yet to be released but the Registrar General & census commissioner office projections are lower than the UN projection.
- It is known that India will overtake China but 2023 is too early. If not in 2023 then in another few years India is bound to overtake China as the world’s most populous country.
What to make out of this data?
- Is Malthusian prediction incorrect?
- Is population a liability or asset? How to harness demographic dividend?
- How will be cater to ageing population?
- Will migration to high income countries continue?
- Will we achieve SDGs by 2030?