Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

Dvorak Technique (DT)

• The Dvorak Technique continues to be widely relied upon by forecasters till date, despite the developments in advanced satellite technology, Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI).
• Dvorak Technique is a cloud pattern recognition technique based on a concept model of the development and decay of the tropical cyclone.
• Dvorak Technique is s statistical method for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) from interpretation of satellite imagery.
• Uses regular Infrared and Visible imagery.
• Based on a “measurement” of the cyclone’s convective cloud pattern and a set of rules.
• It is used at tropical cyclone warning centers around the world.
• Significance: It helps forecasters to do a pattern recognition from the observed structure of the storm, locate its eye and estimate the intensity of the storm.
  • It enables scientists to measure the cyclone’s convective cloud pattern — curved bands, eye and central dense or cold region and shear.
  • It gives the best estimates of the cyclone intensity — a vital component while issuing weather warnings.
  • It is crucial for local administration in planning evacuation measures of coastal or other nearby residents.
• However, it cannot make any predictions related to wind or pressure or any other meteorological parameters associated with the cyclone.
• Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT): It’s an advanced version and named as Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT), coined by the National Hurricane Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
  • It would improve the tropical storm forecasts by many folds as they would have access to sharper and detailed images than ever before.

Dvorak Technique: Steps Taken in India for Cyclone Forecast

• Atmospheric & Climate Research – Modeling Observing Systems & Services (ACROSS): It is an Umbrella scheme for enhancing the accuracy of weather forecasts and their more effective & timely dissemination in the ensuing years is a continuing process.
• GEMINI: Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has developed a device named GEMINI (GAGAN Enabled Mariner’s Instrument for Navigation and Information), a handheld device that receives the information transmitted through satellite system ‘GAGAN’ and sends it to mobile phones through Bluetooth.
• SSEWS: INCOIS has set up a Storm Surge Early Warning System (SSEWS) for the Indian coasts, in collaboration with the IMD, to forecast cyclone-induced storm surges and inundation extent.
• National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP): To undertake suitable structural and non-structural measures to mitigate the effects of cyclones in the coastal states and UTs of India.
  • Project has identified 13 cyclone prone States and Union Territories (UTs), with varying levels of vulnerability.
• Phase–2 of the NCRMP: National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) in collaboration with India Meteorological Department (IMD) has developed a web based Dynamic Composite Risk Analysis (Web-DCRA) & Decision Support System (DSS) tool for forecasting the expected damage associated with the Landfalling cyclones over the coastal districts of our country.
  • It will enable the disaster managers for a better assessment of the vulnerable areas and in mobilizing the mitigation action based on this.

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